Compute desk for asset managers
Track transition risk with probability, not promises.
Compare stated commitments with source-linked regulatory, grid, and energy-market scenarios before an analyst reaches a conclusion.
A probability-oriented ESG review
Traditional ESG Analysis
“Company claims 100% renewable energy.”
“Carbon intensity appears to be declining.”
“Regulatory risk seems manageable.”
Self-reported claims. Backward-looking. No probability of holding up.
Illustrative Compute Desk view
89% sample score for a 24/7 CFE scenario
62% sample score for a carbon-target scenario
94% sample score for a regulatory scenario
Illustrative scores only; source coverage, assumptions, and validation remain visible for review.
Monitor exposure with probability, not scores
- →Exposure mapping with P(energy risk) by holding
- →Risk concentration with probability-weighted geographic clustering
- →Peer benchmarking with documented scenario-score comparisons
- →Scenario analysis with P(outcome) for each stress scenario
Test commitments against explicit scenarios
- →Carbon footprint with P(target achieved) by company
- →24/7 CFE progress with probability-based commitment tracking
- →TCFD alignment with probability-weighted climate scenarios
- →Green bond eligibility with P(qualification) scoring
Sustainability Commitments vs. Probability of Delivery
Hyperscaler A
DC REIT B
Sample probabilities for illustration. Client views depend on connected operational data, grid mix, and regulatory sources.
Research workflows for scenario analysis
Thematic Investing
Compare an investment thesis against source-linked energy and regulatory scenarios. Treat each score as an input to research, not a prediction of investment performance.
Risk Arbitrage
Compare regulatory-exposure scenarios with market assumptions before a human makes a portfolio decision. The workflow does not execute trades.
Event-Driven
Review tariff changes, interconnection approvals, and M&A events with their source trail and explicit scenario assumptions.
Testing a portfolio company's regulatory exposure
A design-partner review could combine a hypothetical utilization-rule scenario with public filings, facility exposure, and the assumptions behind a sample probability score. Analysts would then compare hold, engage, hedge, or reallocation options before acting.
This is not a customer case study or evidence of avoided loss, alpha, ESG improvement, or research-time reduction.
See Probability Signals for Your Holdings
In a design-partner walkthrough, we can map selected holdings to configured scenarios for ESG commitments, regulatory risk, and energy-transition exposure.
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