Track Transition Risk With
Probability, Not Promises.
ESG reports tell you what companies claim. We tell you the probability those claims hold up under regulatory stress—31 days before the exposure hits valuations.
Why Asset Managers Choose Cognitive Finance Over Traditional ESG Data
Traditional ESG Analysis
“Company claims 100% renewable energy.”
“Carbon intensity appears to be declining.”
“Regulatory risk seems manageable.”
Self-reported claims. Backward-looking. No probability of holding up.
Cognitive Finance
89% probability of meeting 24/7 CFE commitment
62% probability of hitting carbon target
94% probability of regulatory compliance
Verified signals. Forward-looking. Probability-weighted reality.
Monitor exposure with probability, not scores
- →Exposure mapping with P(energy risk) by holding
- →Risk concentration with probability-weighted geographic clustering
- →Peer benchmarking with calibrated probability comparisons
- →Scenario analysis with P(outcome) for each stress scenario
Beyond claims. Probability-weighted reality.
- →Carbon footprint with P(target achieved) by company
- →24/7 CFE progress with probability-based commitment tracking
- →TCFD alignment with probability-weighted climate scenarios
- →Green bond eligibility with P(qualification) scoring
Sustainability Commitments vs. Probability of Delivery
Hyperscaler A
DC REIT B
Probabilities based on operational data, grid mix, regulatory trajectory. Updated daily.
Alpha Generation Through Probability
Thematic Investing
Build AI infrastructure strategies using probability-weighted energy edge insights. Identify which hyperscalers have the highest P(sustainable growth).
Risk Arbitrage
Long/short opportunities based on regulatory exposure differentials. When P(tariff impact) diverges from market pricing, you move first.
Event-Driven
Trade around tariff changes, interconnection approvals, M&A—with probability signals 30-90 days before the market.
$15B Technology Fund: Avoided $12M Loss Through Probability Intelligence
GreenCIO flagged 78% probability of Ohio's utilization mandate affecting portfolio company 31 days before ruling. Fund exited position before announcement, identified $8M alpha in undervalued renewable-powered alternatives, improved ESG scores by 15%, and reduced research time by 60%.
Probability-based intelligence. Measurable alpha.
See Probability Signals for Your Holdings
We'll show you how your portfolio maps to our probability signals— ESG commitment delivery, regulatory risk, and energy transition trajectories.
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