Know the Probability of Power—
Before You Commit Capital.
Your competitors see a permit filed and start due diligence. You see a 73% approval probability, declining queue positions, and regulatory shifts—30-90 days before the deal is priced.
Why PE Funds Choose Cognitive Finance Over Traditional Research
Traditional Approach
“Permit was filed in Ohio last quarter.”
“Grid capacity looks constrained.”
“We think this might be delayed.”
No probability. No confidence. No way to size the bet.
Cognitive Finance
73% permit approval probability, updated 2h ago
48% grid capacity available by Q3
81% PPA pricing favorable
Calibrated beliefs. Confidence intervals. Actionable intelligence.
Find opportunities before they're priced in
- →Market mapping with probability-weighted capacity scores by region
- →Distressed asset alerts when P(grid constraint) exceeds 70%
- →Competitive intelligence on bidder grid exposure
- →Roll-up opportunities by energy advantage probability
Underwrite with probability, not projections
- →Energy cost modeling with P(tariff change) scenarios
- →Grid risk scoring with interconnection probability curves
- →Regulatory deep dive with P(rule change) by jurisdiction
- →Exit scenario planning with probability-weighted multiples
How a Mid-Market PE Fund Turned Regulatory Risk Into +320bps
The Signal
GreenCIO flagged 78% probability of Ohio's 85% utilization rule passing—47 days before the ruling.
The Action
Fund identified $8M annual penalty risk in target's 40% average utilization. Negotiated 20% discount (12x → 9.6x EBITDA).
The Outcome
Implemented workload consolidation to 87% utilization. Exited at 15x.+320bps annual return from probability-based intelligence.
See Probability Signals for Your Pipeline
We'll show you live probability signals for your target regions—grid capacity, permit timelines, regulatory risk. No sales pitch. Just the intelligence.
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