Free Tool

AI Datacenter Payback Calculator

Stress-test the “2-year payback” thesis. Models GPU refresh, revenue decay, and your cost of capital — the variables that turn a marketing number into the real one.

Assumptions

$50.00B

70% of CapEx

$27.50B

$1.50B

$1.50B

10.0% / yr

10.0%

Defaults are calibrated to a 1 GW frontier-AI build (~$50B CapEx, ~$27.5B revenue, $1.5B power). Adjust to fit your scenario.
Simple payback
1.82 yrs
CapEx ÷ revenue
Cash payback
2.19 yrs
After all OpEx + GPU refresh
Economic payback
2.67 yrs
Discounted at 10.0%

Cumulative cash flow

Crosses zero at payback

Financials

Year 1 EBITDA
$24.50B
Year 1 FCF
$24.50B
NPV (10y)
$26.68B
IRR
25.5%
GPU refresh CapEx
$35.00B
Revenue (horizon)
$179.11B

Email me this report

Get the full breakdown, your assumptions, and the chart in your inbox.

We'll only use this to send your report and occasional GreenCIO updates. Unsubscribe anytime.

Want bear / base / bull scenarios?

GreenCIO's agents run multi-scenario sensitivity, model token-price compression, and benchmark against comparable hyperscaler builds.

Request a Demo