What AI compute deals disclose about power and delivery

Findings

• 12 of 53 records (23%) state both a capacity in megawatts and a datable first-capacity target, the minimum inputs for screening when power could arrive.
• Cloud compute records state a monetary value in 21 of 29 and megawatts in 9. Campus builds state megawatts in 12 of 21 and a monetary value in 3. Across these records, compute deals are more often disclosed in money and campus builds in megawatts. The records are not matched project by project.
• 19 records state a monetary value but no megawatts, so the announcement alone cannot be converted into power demand.
• 4 of 53 records carry a company-reported delivery milestone. Of 19 first-capacity targets specific enough to date, 4 have passed; 1 of those passed with no reported delivery in the record.
• For datable targets, the median window from announcement to first capacity runs 9 to 17 months.

By deal type

What this means for a power review

An announced deal is a company claim about capacity and timing, not evidence that power is available. Where the record states megawatts and a date, the next documents are the utility service agreement, interconnection status, and the construction schedule. Where it states only a monetary value, the capacity itself is still an open question. The time-to-power screen lists the documents that close each gap.

Method and limits

• Scope: selected public deal records in the GreenCIO tracker, not a census: 39 signed agreements, 10 announced builds, 1 letter of intent, and 3 deals in use at announcement. Large, widely reported deals are more likely to be included.
• Unit: one record per announcement. A follow-on expansion of an earlier allocation is its own record, so counts are records, not unique projects.
• “Stated” means the cited source gave the figure when the record was captured. Nothing is estimated; an undisclosed field stays undisclosed.
• A first-capacity date counts only when the tracker has reviewed the company’s wording and mapped it to a calendar window; a broad phrase such as “early 2027” keeps the whole year. Phased programs, completion deadlines, chip release dates, and notes that capacity was already running are not counted.
• A stated value is any monetary amount in its original currency (USD, EUR, INR): a compute purchase value, a build budget, or a project value. These are different quantities and are never added together.
• Reported delivery counts only milestones the company itself disclosed and the tracker has linked.